When will BEVs and FCEVs reach cost parity with conventional powertrains?
Based on the latest study quantifying the impact of advanced vehicle technologies on energy consumption and cost (link), BEAN was used to estimate when different technologies would be cost competitive from a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) perspective. BEAN was used across all vehicle classes and applications from compact cars to line-haul trucks.
BEV Cost Parity for Passenger Cars
For Small SUVs, considering current technology progress trends (Low Technology scenario), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) would become cost competitive with conventional powertrains between 2025 (BEV 200 miles) and 2042 (BEV 500 miles) Model Years. Under the High Technology scenario, BEVs become cost competitive an average of 5 years earlier, thus significantly accelerating their market adoption.
BEV and FCEV Cost Parity for Trucks
For Class 4 delivery trucks, considering current technology progress trends (Low Technology case), BEVs would achieve TCO parity with conventional vehicles as early as 2028 Model Year. Achieving High Technology progress would accelerate the timeframe by 2-3 years. Fuel cell vehicles are expected to achieve TCO parity by 2030, 10 years earlier than for the Low Technology scenario.
For heavy duty long haul trucks, achieving High Technology case will be critical to reaching TCO parity. Higher levels of technology progress will accelerate the market adoption of heavy duty long haul trucks by about 10 years in the case of these vehicles, by 2040 for BEVs and by 2045 for FCEVs.
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